Paper
Maksim Samorukov
{
"authors": [
"Maksim Samorukov"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Western Balkans",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy",
"EU",
"Security"
]
}
Source: Getty Images
Ever Increasing Circles: How Bulgaria Is Straying from Russia’s Orbit
Bulgarians may still know the name of the Russian ambassador better than the frequently changing heads of their own government, but beyond the media buzz, most of Moscow’s leverage in Bulgaria has perished in the flames of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Published on Jun 18, 2025
For over a century and a half, Bulgaria has featured prominently in Russia’s Black Sea strategy. Instead of direct annexation, the country was assigned the role of a humble satellite, always ready to facilitate Russia’s access to Europe and the Mediterranean as well as ward off other powers from Russia’s southern coast. These objectives haven’t changed much in the 21st century. Joint energy projects with Bulgaria were supposed to bring Russian energy giants closer to European markets, bypassing less pliant transit states, while historical affinity with Bulgarians was leveraged to limit NATO’s presence in and around the Black Sea. The results of Russia’s efforts, however, are in many ways the opposite of those intended.
This paper is a part of the project “Russian Intentions and Actions in the Black Sea” by Transatlantic Leadership Network. Other papers of the project are available here.
About the Author
Maksim Samorukov
Fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Samorukov is a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
- In Odesa’s Shadows: What Is Russia’s Strategy in Moldova?
- Between Russia and the EU: Europe’s Arc of InstabilityPaper
Thomas de Waal, Dimitar Bechev, Maksim Samorukov
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Southeast Asia’s Agency Amid the New Oil CrisisCommentary
There is no better time for the countries of Southeast Asia to reconsider their energy security than during this latest crisis.
Gita Wirjawan
- Fuel Crisis Forces Politically Perilous Trade-Offs in IndonesiaCommentary
As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation, and fiscal credibility. President Prabowo’s personalized governance style may make these hard choices even harder to navigate.
Sana Jaffrey
- Europe Doesn’t Like War—for Good ReasonsCommentary
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are existential threats to Europe as a peace project. Leaders and citizens alike must reaffirm their solidarity to face up to today’s multifaceted challenges.
Marc Pierini
- In Its Iran War Debate, Washington Has Lost the Plot in AsiaCommentary
The United States ignores the region’s lived experience—and the tough political and social trade-offs the war has produced—at its peril.
Evan A. Feigenbaum
- Blocking of Telegram App Sparks Rare Public Rift Among Russia’s ElitesCommentary
The prospect of a total block on Russia’s most popular messaging app has sparked disagreement between the regime’s political managers and its security agencies.
Andrey Pertsev
